Anthropic's $517B Compute vs OpenAI's 30 GW Plan (Sep 2026)
The short answer
Anthropic has committed up to $517 billion for at least 14.8 GW of compute in eleven months; OpenAI is targeting about 30 GW by 2030. Anthropic is buying faster relative to its size and revenue, OpenAI is targeting a larger absolute footprint over a longer horizon, and both are doing it while their CEOs publicly argue for restraint. Figures below are from The Information (September 7, 2026), Bloomberg and company statements, verified September 16, 2026.
| Anthropic | OpenAI | |
|---|---|---|
| Headline commitment | Up to $517B (Oct 2025-Aug 2026 contracts) | ~30 GW by 2030 (public target); Stargate program |
| Capacity | 14.8 GW new + 1-2 GW existing | ~30 GW target |
| Prior guidance | ~$180B server leasing through 2029 (told to investors earlier) | Multi-hundred-billion Stargate commitments announced 2025-2026 |
| Main suppliers | Amazon + Google (~11 GW, >$300B); Microsoft Azure ($30B, | Microsoft, Oracle, SoftBank/Stargate, CoreWeave, AWS, plus own sites and the Jalapeño custom chip |
| Annualized revenue | >$65B (Bloomberg) | >$40B as of July 2026 |
| Compute-commitment to revenue | ~8x | Not directly comparable; commitments spread through 2030+ |
| Public posture | Amodei: “We must pace the frontier” (Sep 2026) | Altman: no 2026 IPO, safety concerns; warns of “unsustainable silliness” in neocloud spending |
| Financing status | IPO preparation; $2T valuation talk | IPO ruled out for 2026 |
What Anthropic signed
The Information’s tally covers contracts struck between October 2025 and August 2026:
- Amazon and Google, about 11 GW, more than $300 billion. Anthropic’s two largest investors are also its two largest suppliers, across AWS Trainium capacity and Google TPUs plus GPU cloud.
- Microsoft Azure, $30 billion for about 1 GW, the deal that made Claude available on Azure and Foundry.
- SpaceX, about $45 billion, the most surprising line; details of what SpaceX provides (data-center power, orbital compute, or capacity via xAI-adjacent infrastructure) have not been confirmed by either company.
- Lambda and nScale, about $80 billion for 460 MW, the neocloud tier. Our breakdown: Anthropic’s $35B Lambda vs $45B nScale deals.
- Fluidstack and Anthropic’s own planned data centers round it out.
The energy footprint is comparable to more than ten large nuclear reactors, and The Information stresses that $517 billion is a ceiling on potential spend across the life of the contracts, not a committed cash figure.
What OpenAI is doing
OpenAI’s target is roughly 30 GW by 2030 through the Stargate program with SoftBank and Oracle, continuing Microsoft capacity, CoreWeave, AWS, and its own custom silicon; the Jalapeño accelerator benchmarked against GB300 in August 2026. Its published dollar figures have been announced deal by deal rather than as one total, which is why headlines quote gigawatts for OpenAI and dollars for Anthropic. On September 12, 2026, Sam Altman told Fortune that OpenAI will not go public in 2026, citing safety concerns and calling the timing ill-advised.
Why the comparison is imprecise
- Horizons differ. Many Anthropic contracts run past 2030; OpenAI’s 30 GW is a 2030 snapshot.
- Dollars vs watts. Price per gigawatt varies 2-3x depending on chip generation and whether the deal includes power and buildings.
- Upper bounds. Both companies’ figures are maximums under take-or-pay style agreements with ramp schedules.
- Vendor-financed. Amazon and Google are investors in Anthropic; Microsoft and SoftBank in OpenAI. Some “commitments” are partly circular.
The credibility problem both labs now have
The timing of the $517 billion report, days after Amodei’s “We must pace the frontier” essay, gave critics an opening:
- Axios (September 15, 2026): pacing could reduce Anthropic’s compute spend, and no frontier lab can sit out the capital markets; a cynical reading is that a coordinated slowdown protects incumbents from cheaper or open rivals.
- The Decoder: Amodei said in early 2026 that competitors “don’t really understand the risks they’re taking” by investing too fast; now Anthropic is the one racing.
- Beijing: China’s Foreign Ministry called Amodei’s chip-restriction argument “fearmongering.”
- Washington: President Trump rejected the slowdown call on September 14, saying his administration has “tremendous criminal and regulatory power” over AI firms and framing data-center opposition as helping China.
Meanwhile OpenAI confirmed on September 15 that it has been in weeks of safety talks with Anthropic and Google DeepMind, even as it builds toward 30 GW. Read together: the labs want a coordinated pace, not a smaller footprint. See Who is slowing down AI: OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Google.
What it means for customers
- Capacity constraints should ease in 2027, when the first tranches of these deals land; the September 2026 ChatGPT Pro $200 sign-up pause and Claude Code’s 17% weekly-limit cut are symptoms of the current squeeze.
- Prices may not fall as fast as hardware improves. Both labs must service enormous fixed commitments; per-token cuts in 2026 came from efficiency and competition, not from spare capacity.
- Supplier concentration is a risk on both sides. Anthropic’s ~11 GW from two investor-suppliers and OpenAI’s Stargate dependence on SoftBank and Oracle financing mean a single partner’s balance sheet can gate model availability.
Related
- Anthropic’s $2 trillion IPO and $30 trillion TAM (September 2026)
- Why OpenAI will not IPO in 2026
- What is “We must pace the frontier,” Amodei’s September 2026 essay
- Anthropic vs OpenAI vs Perplexity revenue (August 2026)