Who's IPO-ing first — OpenAI or Anthropic?

Anthropic filed first (June 1, 2026), OpenAI filed second (June 8, 2026), but OpenAI is reportedly targeting an earlier pricing window (September) than Anthropic's later target (October). So filing order does not equal pricing order. As of June 16, 2026, the consensus expectation is that OpenAI prices first in September, Anthropic prices in October, but a swap is entirely possible. The actual determinant is not who filed first; it is who closes their roadshow first and which window the underwriters pick to avoid clashing with each other. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading OpenAI; Morgan Stanley is on Anthropic too, which means MS is literally choosing between which client goes first. Expect MS to stage them: OpenAI in September, Anthropic in October, with a 3-4 week gap so each gets its own news cycle and pricing dynamics.

Why did Anthropic file before OpenAI?

Three reasons. (1) Anthropic finished its Series H first — the $65B round closed in May 2026 at a roughly $965B post-money valuation, which set a credible IPO pricing anchor. (2) Dario Amodei has been more explicit about wanting public capital to fund compute purchases at scale, where OpenAI was historically reliant on Microsoft. (3) Filing first claims first-mover narrative — Anthropic becomes the AI IPO precedent that OpenAI follows, rather than the other way around. Strategically, filing first also locks in roadshow priority with Morgan Stanley, who is now committed to staging Anthropic's deal regardless of OpenAI's relative timing. Filing first does not necessarily mean pricing first, but it does mean Anthropic controls the narrative around being the responsible-AI-leader IPO before OpenAI gets to position itself.

What are the actual valuations and how do they compare to historic tech IPOs?

Numbers as of June 16, 2026: Anthropic's last private round priced at ~$965B post-money. OpenAI's last secondary print is in the $852-908B range. Both companies' bankers are reportedly modeling IPO target valuations near or above $1T. For context, Meta's 2012 IPO priced at $104B, Alibaba's 2014 IPO at $231B, and Saudi Aramco's 2019 IPO at $1.7T. A $1T AI IPO would be the second-largest in history. Combined, OpenAI and Anthropic priced at a combined ~$2T would represent more market cap created by IPO in 12 months than the entire 2020-2021 SPAC boom delivered. Whether either trades up or down post-IPO is the real question — both are pricing at revenue multiples (~50-80x forward revenue) that have historically been compressed by public markets.

Should I try to buy at IPO?

Almost certainly not, for the same reasons you should not have tried to buy Facebook at its 2012 IPO. Mega-cap tech IPOs are allocated to institutional investors first, retail second; you would get the bottom of the allocation barrel if you got any at all. Mega-cap tech IPOs also routinely trade flat or down for the first 30-90 days as the lockup unwinds and institutional flippers exit. The historical pattern is that 12-24 months after IPO is when retail entry points clear up — Facebook's IPO at $38 in 2012 was below $20 within 4 months and only returned to $38 a year later. The realistic move for retail is: do not chase IPO day, wait 6-12 months for the dust to settle, then evaluate against your portfolio. If you want AI exposure now, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, and TSMC are all already public and all give you meaningful AI exposure without the IPO-day premium.

Quick Answer

OpenAI September IPO vs Anthropic October IPO: Who Prices First (June 2026)

Published: June 16, 2026

OpenAI September IPO vs Anthropic October IPO: Who Prices First (June 2026)

The two largest AI IPOs in history are filed and racing to a fall 2026 pricing window. Anthropic filed June 1. OpenAI filed June 8. Both target Q3/Q4 2026 pricing at valuations near or above $1T. This page covers who is likely to price first, what determines the order, and how the race actually unfolds.

Last verified: June 16, 2026.

TL;DR

Anthropic filed first (June 1, 2026), targeting October 2026 pricing.
OpenAI filed second (June 8, 2026), targeting September 2026 pricing.
Filing order ≠ pricing order. OpenAI may price first despite filing later.
Morgan Stanley is on both — MS is effectively choosing the stagger order.
Combined target valuation ≈ $2T. Second- and third-largest tech IPOs in history.

Filing timeline so far

Date	Event
May 28, 2026	Anthropic Series H closes at ~$965B valuation
June 1, 2026	Anthropic files confidential S-1
June 8, 2026	OpenAI files confidential S-1
June 15-17, 2026	Both CEOs at G7 summit in France
July-August 2026	Roadshow and pricing windows open
September 2026	OpenAI targeted pricing
October 2026	Anthropic targeted pricing

Why filing order may not equal pricing order

Both companies filed confidentially. That means the S-1 is with the SEC but not yet public, the 21-day SEC review starts on filing day, but the actual roadshow does not start until the company decides to flip the filing public. Whoever flips public first effectively starts the clock running on their pricing window.

Anthropic filed seven days earlier but is reportedly the more methodical of the two — Amodei has signaled that the Anthropic roadshow will be deliberate, with longer investor education on the responsible-AI positioning. OpenAI is reportedly moving faster — Altman wants to be public before the next political cycle gets unpredictable, and OpenAI’s pricing math depends on a richer narrative that benefits from being told first.

So filing order: Anthropic, OpenAI. Pricing order: probably OpenAI, then Anthropic. A 3-4 week gap is the typical stagger for two huge IPOs in the same sector.

Who’s actually deciding the order

Morgan Stanley is on both deals. Goldman Sachs is leading OpenAI, JPMorgan is reportedly involved on both, and Morgan Stanley is doing what Morgan Stanley does best — running the two largest tech IPOs in history simultaneously without letting them eat each other.

The brutal commercial reality: two mega-IPOs in the same sector in the same month would force investors to choose, which compresses pricing for both. Staggering them gives each a clean window. Morgan Stanley benefits either way and is incentivized to stagger. The actual order between OpenAI in September and Anthropic in October is partly an Altman/Amodei decision, partly an MS scheduling decision.

Valuation context

Both companies are pricing at extraordinary multiples. As of June 2026:

Company	Last private valuation	Reported revenue	Implied multiple
OpenAI	$852-908B	~$15-18B run-rate	~50-60x
Anthropic	$965B	~$12-14B run-rate	~70-80x

Compared to historic precedent:

Meta 2012 IPO: $104B at ~25x revenue.
Alibaba 2014 IPO: $231B at ~30x revenue.
Snowflake 2020 IPO: $70B at ~135x revenue (the peak SaaS bubble).
Saudi Aramco 2019 IPO: $1.7T at ~10x revenue.

OpenAI and Anthropic are pricing closer to the Snowflake-2020-peak end than to the more typical Meta/Alibaba range. That works as long as growth stays at current rates. If growth decelerates even modestly post-IPO, the multiple compresses fast — which is the public-market history pattern for high-multiple IPOs.

What determines who actually trades better

Three factors matter more than which one prices first.

1. Growth disclosure

The confidential S-1 will eventually go public. The revenue growth disclosures will be the central focus. OpenAI reportedly grew revenue ~3x year-over-year through 2025-2026. Anthropic grew faster off a smaller base. Whichever company shows the cleaner growth trajectory in the public S-1 prices better.

2. Compute commitments

Both companies have made multi-year compute commitments — OpenAI to Microsoft and reportedly to Oracle, Anthropic to AWS and Google Cloud. These commitments are huge — single-digit billions per year each. Investors will focus heavily on whether revenue grows fast enough to cover compute costs and on whether the compute commitments are fixed or have escape valves. Anthropic’s compute commitments are reportedly more flexible than OpenAI’s. That helps Anthropic on the cost-coverage narrative.

3. Microsoft relationship

The OpenAI S-1 has to disclose the Microsoft relationship in detail, including the IP-sharing terms, the compute exclusivity arrangements, and the eventual independence path. This is OpenAI’s biggest IPO risk — investors are skittish about complex multi-party governance, and the OpenAI-Microsoft arrangement is genuinely complex. A clean disclosure helps OpenAI; a messy disclosure compresses the multiple meaningfully.

Anthropic does not have an equivalent. Anthropic’s Amazon and Google relationships are more conventional cloud partnerships without the same governance entanglement. That is a meaningful advantage for Anthropic on the IPO narrative.

What should you actually do as an individual

Do not chase IPO day. Mega-cap tech IPOs are allocated to institutions first, and retail allocations historically get the worst price. Worse, mega-cap tech IPOs routinely trade flat or down for 30-90 days as lockups unwind. The Facebook 2012 pattern is the warning: $38 IPO price, $19 four months later, $38 again 14 months after IPO. Patient retail entry beat IPO-day retail entry by ~50% in a year.

Wait 6-12 months. Both OpenAI and Anthropic will likely be public by Q4 2026. The lockup expiration is around April-June 2027. Historically, the post-lockup period is when retail entry points get cleaner. That is the realistic window for individual investors who want direct exposure.

Get exposure now via existing public stocks. Microsoft (OpenAI partner), Alphabet (DeepMind/Gemini), Amazon (Anthropic partner), Nvidia (compute), TSMC (chips) are all already public and all give you meaningful AI exposure without IPO-day premium. The diversified exposure is arguably better than direct exposure to one frontier-model company.

Bottom line

The 2026 dual-IPO race is the biggest tech IPO event since the late 90s. Both deals are filed. Both are aiming at Q3/Q4 2026 pricing. The probable order is OpenAI in September, Anthropic in October, but that is Morgan Stanley’s call to stagger and could swap. Either way, two ~$1T AI IPOs in 6 weeks reshapes how the AI sector is valued for the next decade.

For most individual investors, the right move is not to participate in either IPO directly. Wait for the lockup expiration cycle, watch the disclosed financials, and pick an entry point that does not require paying the IPO-day premium. The historical track record of buying mega-cap tech at IPO is bad. The historical track record of buying it 6-12 months later is much better.

OpenAI September IPO vs Anthropic October IPO: Who Prices First (June 2026)

TL;DR

Filing timeline so far

Why filing order may not equal pricing order

Who’s actually deciding the order

Valuation context

What determines who actually trades better

1. Growth disclosure

2. Compute commitments

3. Microsoft relationship

What should you actually do as an individual

Bottom line

See also